February 2020 – Universal Credit Update

The reason given for the delay relates to the assumptions made about the number of people whose circumstances will change each day, thereby naturally migrating. Forecasts had relied on 50,000 households experiencing a change in circumstances each month. Based on this, it was predicted that the process of natural migration across to universal credit would be completed by December 2023. However, information collected on change of circumstances suggests that natural migration is happening less frequently than expected. It is now estimated that 900,000 fewer households will naturally migrate between now and December 2023 than forecasted. It necessarily follows that it will take a further nine months to complete the implementation of universal credit.

In an embarrassing clarification for the government, UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) Chair Sir David Norgrove has confirmed that the Prime Minister Boris Johnsons claim that universal credit has succeeded in getting 200,000 people into jobs, was incorrect. Challenging the accuracy of Mr Johnsons assertion, Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary wrote to the UKSA to request that it investigate the claim, highlighting that the 200,000 figure was set out in a ministerial statement on the Universal Credit Full Business Case as a forecast of how many more people than under the legacy system would take up employment when universal credit is fully rolled out.

The claim had previously been looked at by the National Audit Office who reported that the DWP acknowledged that it cannot in fact measure the outcome accurately. Despite this the government is sticking to the 200,000 more people will be in employment figure once Universal Credit has been fully rolled out.

Finally, it is worth noting that the number of households subject to the benefit cap that are on universal credit has exceeded capped housing benefit households for the first time since the cap was introduced in April 2013.

 

The figures set out the number and make-up of capped households with children at November 2019, including that

72 per cent (55,000) of households that had their benefits capped were single parent families

66 per cent (36,000) of single parent capped households had at least one child aged under five years, including 23 per cent (13,000) with a child aged under two years

93 per cent (71,000) of households that had their benefits capped included children, with the figure at 94 per cent (34,000) for housing benefit, and 92 per cent (37,000) for universal credit

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